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SPA personnel are engaged in cutting edge research and projects in several areas. This page provides publications related to the following topics:

 

Scroll down or click on a link to go to publications in each of these areas.

 

Business continuity, risk mitigation, loss estimation, and performance-based earthquake engineering (PBEE)

Porter, K., 2017. Mitigation still saves: a broader reexamination of natural hazard mitigation. Building Innovation 2017 Conference, Washington DC, 10-12 Jan 2017. http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Porter-2017-MMC-MSv2.pdf

Porter, K., 2016. Not safe enough: the case for resilient seismic design. Submitted to 2016 SEAOC Convention Maui HI, October 12 – 15, 2016. http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Porter-2016-SEAOC-Resilience.pdf

Porter, K.A., 2015. Safe enough? A building code to protect our cities as well as our lives. Earthquake Spectra. http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Porter-2015-EQS-Safe-Enough.pdf

Corotis, R.B, H. Bonstrom, and K. Porter, 2012. Overcoming public and political challenges for natural hazard risk investment decisions. Invited keynote, Proc. Asian-Pacific Symposium on Structural Reliability and its Applications (APSSRA12), Singapore, 23-25 May 2012. http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Corotis-2012-APSSRA-Public-Decisions.pdf

Porter, K.A., and K. Cobeen, 2012. Informing a retrofit ordinance: a soft-story case study. Proc. 2012 Structures Congress, Chicago IL, March 29-31, 2012. http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Porter-2012-SSSC12-CAPSS.pdf

Porter, K.A. and K. Ramer, 2012. Estimating earthquake-induced failure probability and downtime of critical facilities. Journal of Business Continuity and Emergency Planning, 5 (4), 352-364, http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Porter-2012-JBCEP-Downtime.pdf

Porter, K.A., and K. Ramer, 2012 (expected). A performance-based earthquake engineering method to estimate downtime in critical facilities. Proc. 15th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering, Lisbon, 24-28 Sep 2012, paper number 4523, http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Porter-2012-15WCEE-Downtime.pdf

Porter, K.A., 2011. A Brief History of PBEE-2. A lecture to the University of Colorado at Boulder's Department of Civil Engineering, graduate course CVEN 5835-02 SPTPS: Nonlinear Structural Analysis, Theory & Applications. February 17, 2011. http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Porter-2011-CU-PBEE2-fragility.pdf. See also Practical Development and Application of Fragility Functions, above, and PBEE-2 Simulation Exercise, below.

Porter, K.A., 2011. PBEE-2 Simulation Exercise. A lecture to the University of Colorado at Boulder's Department of Civil Engineering, graduate course CVEN 5835-02 SPTPS: Nonlinear Structural Analysis, Theory & Applications. April 21, 2011. http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Porter-2011-CU-PBEE2-exercise.pdf. See also Practical Development and Application of Fragility Functions, and A Brief History of PBEE-2, above.

Porter, K.A., H. Ishida, K. Torisawa, and M. Miyamura, 2010. Enhancing Nonstructural Fragility Analysis for Essential Facilities. Consortium of Universities for Research in Earthquake Engineering, Richmond CA

Porter, K.A., R. Graves, E. Reis, and P. Somerville, 2007. Index Woodframe Houses and their Response to Puente Hills Scenario Earthquakes. Southern California Earthquake Center, Los Angeles, CA. 120 pp. http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Porter-2007-SCEC-CEA.pdf

Scawthorn, C. 2008. A brief history of seismic risk assessment. In A. Bostrom, S. French and S. Gottlieb, eds., Risk Assessment, Modeling, and Decision Support: Strategic Directions, Springer, http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Scawthorn-2008-History.pdf

Porter, K.A., X. Xu, and S. Krishnan, 2006. Analysis of Simultaneous Operational Failure of Critical Facilities due to Earthquake, for a California Utility. California Institute of Technology, Pasadena CA. 111 pp. http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Porter-2006-Utility-seismic-study.pdf

Porter, K.A., 2006. Evaluating Premium Incentives for the California Earthquake Authority. California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, 60 pp., http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Porter-2006-CEA-premium-incentives.pdf, http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Porter-2006-CEA-appendices.pdf

Porter, K.A.,C.R. Scawthorn, and J.L. Beck, 2006. Cost-effectiveness of stronger woodframe buildings. Earthquake Spectra 22 (1), February 2006, 239-266, http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Porter-2006-woodframe.pdf

Porter, K.A., 2006. The Value of Seismically Strengthening a House, a Nontechnical Overview. Presentation to Professionals in Real Estate, Pasadena, CA, November 10, 2006. http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Porter-2006-Woodframe-nontechnical.ppt

Porter, K.A., 2005. A Taxonomy of Building Components for Performance-Based Earthquake Engineering. PEER Report No, 2005/03, Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research (PEER) Center, Berkeley, CA, 58 pp. http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Porter-2005-Taxonomy.pdf

Porter, K.A., J.L. Beck, R.V. Shaikhutdinov, S.K. Au, K. Mizukoshi, M. Miyamura, H. Ishida, T. Moroi, Y. Tsukada, and M. Masuda, 2004. Effect of seismic risk on lifetime property value. Earthquake Spectra, 20 (4), Nov 2004, 1211-1237. http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Porter-2004-LPV.pdf

Multihazards Mitigation Council, 2005. Natural Hazard Mitigation Saves: An Independent Study to Assess the Future savings from Mitigation Activities. National Institute of Building Sciences, Washington DC. http://c.ymcdn.com/sites/www.nibs.org/resource/resmgr/MMC/hms_vol1.pdf, http://c.ymcdn.com/sites/www.nibs.org/resource/resmgr/MMC/hms_vol2_ch1-7.pdf , http://c.ymcdn.com/sites/www.nibs.org/resource/resmgr/MMC/hms_vol2_app.pdf, http://c.ymcdn.com/sites/www.nibs.org/resource/resmgr/MMC/hms_vol2_ref-glossary.pdf

Porter, K.A., J.L. Beck, and R.V. Shaikhutdinov, 2004. Simplified estimation of economic seismic risk for buildings. Earthquake Spectra, 20 (4), Nov 2004, 1239-1264. http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Porter-2004-PFL.pdf   

Porter, K.A., J.L. Beck, H.A. Seligson, C.R. Scawthorn, L.T. Tobin, and T. Boyd, 2002. Improving Loss Estimation for Woodframe Buildings, Consortium of Universities for Research in Earthquake Engineering, Richmond, CA, 136 pp., http://resolver.caltech.edu/caltechEERL:2002.EERL-2002-01 (main report) and http://resolver.caltech.edu/caltechEERL:2002.EERL-2002-02  (appendices)

Porter, K.A., 2003. An overview of PEER’s performance-based earthquake engineering methodology. Proc. Ninth International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering (ICASP9) July 6-9, 2003, San Francisco, CA. Civil Engineering Risk and Reliability Association (CERRA), 973-980. http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Porter-2003-PBEE-Overview.pdf

Porter, K.A., J.L. Beck, and R.V. Shaikhutdinov, 2002. Sensitivity of building loss estimates to major uncertain variables. Earthquake Spectra, 18 (4), 719-743. http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Porter-2002-Sensitivity.pdf 

Porter, K.A., A.S. Kiremidjian, and J.S. LeGrue, 2001. Assembly-based vulnerability of buildings and its use in performance evaluation. Earthquake Spectra, 17 (2), 291-312. http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Porter-2001-ABV.pdf

Porter, K.A. and A.S. Kiremidjian, 2001. Verifying performance-based design objectives using assembly-based vulnerability. ICOSSAR ’01 Structural Safety and Reliability, Newport Beach, California, USA, June 17 - 21, 2001, paper FCO225. http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Porter-2001-Verifying-PBEE.pdf

 

Porter, K.A., 2000. Assembly-Based Vulnerability of Buildings and its Uses in Seismic Performance Evaluation and Risk-Management Decision-Making. Doctoral thesis. Stanford University, Stanford CA, 216 pp. http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Porter-2000-ABV-thesis.pdf

Fire following earthquake

Workshop on Fires following a Mw 7 Haywired Earthquake.  Powerpoint presentation here.

Davidson, R. A., Kendra, J., Sizheng Li, Long, L. C., McEntire, D. A., and Scawthorn, C. (2012). San Bruno California, September 9, 2010 Gas Pipeline Explosion and Fire. Final Project Report No. 56, accessible at http://udspace.udel.edu/handle/19716/11337, Disaster Research Center, University of Delaware, Newark, 210.

Scawthorn, C. (2011) Water Supply In Regards to Fire Following Earthquakes. pp. 173. Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center, College of Engineering, University of California, sponsored by the California Seismic Safety Commission, Berkeley.  Water Supply in regard to Fire Following Earthquake - Scawthorn FINAL PEER Report 2011.  A four page summary of the report is available here

Scawthorn, C. (2011). Fire following earthquake aspects of the Southern San Andreas Fault Mw 7.8 earthquake scenario. Earthquake Spectra 27 (2), 419-441. http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Scawthorn-2011-ShakeOut-FFE.pdf

Scawthorn, C. (2010) Analysis of Fire Following Earthquake Potential for San Francisco, California pp. 54. SPA Risk LLC Berkeley CA 94708 for the Applied Technology Council On behalf of the Department of Building Inspection City and County of San Francisco, San Francisco.  SPA San Francisco CAPSS Fire Following Earthquake Oct 2010

SPA Risk (2009) Enhancements in HAZUS-MH Fire Following Earthquake, Task 3: Updated Ignition Equation pp. 74pp. SPA Risk LLC, Berkeley CA. Principal Investigator C. Scawthorn. Prepared for PBS&J and the National Institute of Building Sciences, San Francisco. FFE Ignition Equations - Scawthorn16 April 09

Scawthorn, C. (2008) Fire Following Earthquake, Supplemental Study for the ShakeOut Scenario. The ShakeOut Scenario: U.S. Geological Survey Open File Report 2008-1150, California Geological Survey Preliminary Report 2 version 1.0, U.S. Geological Survey Circular 1324, California Geological Survey Special Report 207 version 1.0. U. S. Geological Survey and California Geological Survey, Pasadena. Scawthorn-2008-ShakeOut-FFE

Lee, S., Davidson, R., Ohnishi, N. & Scawthorn, C. (2008) Fire Following Earthquake - Reviewing the State-of-the-Art of Modeling. Earthquake Spectra, 24, 933-967pp.  Lee et al 2008 FFE - SOA Review - EQ Spectra

Scawthorn, C., O'Rourke, T. D. & Blackburn, F. T. (2006) The 1906 San Francisco Earthquake and Fire---Enduring Lessons for Fire Protection and Water Supply. Earthquake Spectra, 22, S135-S158.  06 Spectra 1906 SF EQ and Fire - Enduring Lessons CRS TDO FTB

Scawthorn, C. (1987). Fire following earthquake: Estimates of the conflagration risk to insured property in greater Los Angeles and San Francisco, All-Industry Research Advisory Council, Oak Brook, Ill. For a copy, click here

Fragility and vulnerability of buildings

Porter, K.A., 2015. A Beginner's Guide to Fragility, Vulnerability, and Risk. 72 pp., http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Porter-beginners-guide.pdf

Porter, K.A., 2015. Dollars, deaths, and downtime: understand your building's seismic risk and how to evaluate it. A presentation to SEAOSC Strengthening Our Cities Summit 5 Nov 2015, Los Angeles, CA. http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Porter-2015-SEAOSC-3D.pdf

SPA Risk LLC and Henderson Creative, 2014. Mobile Homes in Earthquakes: How to Protect your Home and Family. Prepared for California Governor’s Office of Emergency Services and Earthquake Engineering Research Institute. SPA Risk LLC, Denver CO, 2 pp, http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/SPA-2014-Mobile-Homes-in-Earthquakes.pdf

Cho, I.H. and K.A. Porter, 2013. Three Techniques for Modeling Building Classes using Moment Matching. SESM 13-01, Structural Engineering and Structural Mechanics Program, Department of Civil Environmental and Architectural Engineering, University of Colorado Boulder, http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Cho-2013-SESM-building-classes.pdf

K. Farokhnia and K.A. Porter, 2012. Estimating the Non-Structural Seismic Vulnerability of Building Categories. Proc. 15th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering, Lisbon, 24-28 Sep 2012, paper number 3900, http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Farokhnia-2012-15WCEE-Nonstructural.pdf

Porter, K.A., K. Farokhnia, I.H. Cho, T. Rossetto, I. Ioannou, D. Grant, K. Jaiswal, D. Wald, D. D’Ayala, A. Meslem, E. So, A.S. Kiremidjian & H.Y. Noh, 2012 (expected). Global vulnerability estimation methods for the Global Earthquake Model. Proc. 15th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering, Lisbon, 24-28 Sep 2012, paper number 4504, http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Porter-2012-15WCEE-GEM-Vulnerability.pdf

Porter, K.A., 2011. Practical Development and Application of Fragility Functions. A lecture to the University of Colorado at Boulder's Department of Civil Engineering, graduate course CVEN 5835-02 SPTPS: Nonlinear Structural Analysis, Theory & Applications. April 19, 2011. http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Porter-2011-CU-PBEE2-fragility.pdf

Porter, K.A., 2010. Cracking an open safe: uncertainty in HAZUS-based seismic vulnerability functions. Earthquake Spectra, 26 (3), 893-900 http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Porter-2010-Safecrack-COV.pdf

Porter, K.A., G. Johnson, R. Sheppard, and R. Bachman, 2010. Fragility of mechanical, electrical, and plumbing equipment. Earthquake Spectra 26 (2) 451-472, http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Porter-2010-MEP-fragility-1.pdf

Porter, K.A., and K. Cobeen, 2009. Loss estimates for large soft-story woodframe buildings in San Francisco. Proc. ATC & SEI 2009 Conference on Improving the Seismic Performance of Existing Buildings and Other Structures. Dec 9-11, 2009, San Francisco, CA, http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Porter-2009-CAPSS-1.pdf

Porter, K.A., 2009. Component Fragility Functions for Older Woodframe Construction. SPA Risk LLC, Denver CO, http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Porter-2009-CAPSS-Fragility.pdf

Porter, K.A., 2009. Seismic Vulnerability of Four Soft-Story Woodframe Index Buildings and their Retrofits. SPA Risk LLC, Denver CO, http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Porter-2009-CAPSS-Vulnerability.pdf

Porter, K.A., 2009. CAPSS Soft-Story Loss Study. SPA Risk LLC, Denver CO, http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Porter-2009-CAPSS-Loss.pdf

Samant, L.D., K. Porter, K. Cobeen, L.T. Tobin, L. Kornfield, H. Seligson, S. Alejandrino, and J. Kidd, 2009. Mitigating San Francisco’s soft-story building problem. Proc. ATC & SEI 2009 Conference on Improving the Seismic Performance of Existing Buildings and Other Structures. Dec 9-11, 2009, San Francisco, CA, paper 109, http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Samant-2009-CAPSS-Mitigation.pdf

Porter, K.A., 2009. Cracking an open safe: more HAZUS vulnerability functions in terms of structure-independent spectral acceleration. Earthquake Spectra 25 (3), 607-618, http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Porter-2009-Safecrack-MDF.pdf

Porter, K.A., 2009. Cracking an open safe: HAZUS vulnerability functions in terms of structure-independent spectral acceleration. Earthquake Spectra 25 (2), 361-378, http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Porter-2009-Safecrack-Casualty.pdf

Porter, K.A., R.P. Kennedy, and R.E. Bachman, 2007. Creating fragility functions for performance-based earthquake engineering. Earthquake Spectra 23 (2), May 2007, 471-489, DOI:10.1193/1.2720892, http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Porter-2007-deriving-fragility.pdf

Porter, K.A., R.O. Hamburger, and R.P Kennedy, 2007. Practical development and application of fragility functions. Proc. SEI Structures Congress, May 16-19, 2007, Long Beach CA. http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Porter-2007-SEI-fragility.pdf

Porter, K.A., 2007. Fragility of hydraulic elevators for use in performance-based earthquake engineering. Earthquake Spectra. 23 (2), May 2007, 459-469, DOI:10.1193/1.2720902, http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Porter-2007-elevator-fragility.pdf

Porter, K.A., R.P. Kennedy, and R.E. Bachman, 2006. Developing Fragility Functions for Building Components. A Report to ATC-58. Applied Technology Council, Redwood City, CA, http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Porter-2006-deriving-fragility.pdf 

Porter, K.A., 2000. Assembly-Based Vulnerability of Buildings and its Uses in Seismic Performance Evaluation and Risk-Management Decision-Making. Doctoral thesis. Stanford University, Stanford CA, 216 pp. http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Porter-2000-ABV-thesis.pdf

Fragility and vulnerability of lifelines

Porter, K.A. C. Scawthorn, D.G. Honegger, T.D. O'Rourke, and F. Blackburn, 1992. Performance of water supply pipelines in liquefied soil. Proceedings of the 4th US-Japan Workshop on Earthquake Disaster Prevention for Lifeline Systems, Los Angeles, CA, USA, 08/19-21/91; pp. 3-17. 1992. http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Porter-1992-water-pipe-liquefied-soil.pdf 

Scawthorn, C., K. Porter, M. Khater, D. Seidel, D. Ballantyne, H.T. Taylor, R.D. Darragh, and C. Ng, 1992. Utility performance aspects, liquefaction study, Marina and Sullivan Marsh areas, San Francisco California. National Center for Earthquake Engineering Research, Proceedings from the 4th Japan-U.S. Workshop on Earthquake Resistant Design of Lifeline Facilities and Countermeasures for Soil Liquefaction: Tokai University Pacific Center, Honolulu, Hawaii, May 27-29, 1992. Vol. 1., 1992,  317-333. http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Scawthorn-1992-SF-Liquefaction-Study.pdf

Disaster planning scenarios: ShakeOut, ARkStorm, SAFRR Tsunami Scenario

Porter, K.A., and A.M. Wein, 2014. Engineering and economic lessons of the SAFRR Tsunami Scenario. Proceedings of the 10th National Conference on Earthquake Engineering, 21-25 July 2014, Anchorage AK http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Porter-Wein-2014-10NCEE-tsunami-scenario.pdf

Porter, K.A., and A.M. Wein, 2014. Advances in tsunami risk assessment. SSA 2014, 2 May 2014, Anchorage AK http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Porter-Wein-2014-SSA2014-tsunami-scenario.pdf

Porter, K., 2014. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario, a Presentation to NORTHCOM Joint Interagency Coordination Group, 25 Feb 2014, Colorado Springs CO. http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Porter-25-Feb-2014-SAFRR-Northcom.pdf

Porter, K., W. Byers, D. Dykstra, A. Lim, P. Lynett, J. Ratliff, C. Scawthorn, A. Wein, and R. Wilson, 2013. The SAFRR tsunami scenario—physical damage in California. S. Ross and L. Jones, Eds, The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario. US Geological Survey. http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2013/1170/

Ross, S.L., L.M. Jones, K. Miller, K.A. Porter, A. Wein, R.I. Wilson, B. Bahng, A. Barberopoulou, J.C. Borrero, D.M. Brosnan, J.T. Bwarie, E.L. Geist, L.A. Johnson, S.H. Kirby, W.R. Knight, K. Long, P. Lynett, C.E. Mortensen, D.J. Nicolsky, S.C. Perry, G.S. Plumlee, C.R. Real, K. Ryan, E. Suleimani, H.K. Thio, V.V. Titov, P.M. Whitmore, and N.J. Wood, 2013. The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) tsunami scenario—executive summary and Introduction. S. Ross and L. Jones, Eds, The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario. US Geological Survey. http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2013/1170/

Ross, S.L., Jones, L.M., Miller, K., Porter, K.A., Wein, A., Wilson, R.I., Bahng, B., Barberopoulou, A., Borrero, J.C., Brosnan, D.M., Bwarie, J.T., Geist, E.L., Johnson, L.A., Kirby, S.H., Knight, W.R., Long, K., Lynett, P., Mortensen, C.E., Nicolsky, D.J., Perry, S.C., Plumlee, G.S., Real, C.R., Ryan, K., Suleimani, E., Thio, H., Titov, V.V., Whitmore, P.M., and Wood, N.J., 2013, The SAFRR tsunami scenario—Improving resilience for California: U.S. Geological Survey Fact Sheet 2013–3081, 4 p., http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2013/3081/

Porter, K., L Jones, S Ross, J Borrero, J Bwarie, D Dykstra, EL Geist, L Johnson, S Kirby, K Long, P Lynett, K Miller, C Mortensen, S Perry, G Plumlee, C Real, L Ritchie, C Scawthorn, HK Thio, A Wein, P Whitmore, R Wilson, and N Wood, 2013. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario. Proc., PORTS ’13, August 25-28, Seattle WA. manuscript: http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Porter-2013-COPRI-Tsunami-MS.pdf, conference presentation: http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Porter-2013-COPRI-Tsunami-presentation.pdf

Porter, K., A. Wein, C. Alpers, A. Baez, P. Barnard, J. Carter, A. Corsi, J. Costner, D. Cox, T. Das, M. Dettinger, J. Done, C. Eadie, M. Eymann, J. Ferris, P. Gunturi, M. Hughes, R. Jarrett, L. Johnson, H.D. Le-Griffin, D. Mitchell, S. Morman, P. Neiman, A. Olsen, S. Perry, G. Plumlee, M. Ralph, D. Reynolds, A. Rose, K. Schaefer, J. Serakos, W. Siembieda, J. Stock, D. Strong, I.S. Wing, A. Tang, P. Thomas, and K. Topping, 2010. Overview of the ARkStorm Scenario. U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2010-1312, 183 pp. and appendices, http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Porter-2010-ARkStorm.pdf

Porter, K., K. Hudnut, S. Perry, M. Reichle, C. Scawthorn, and A. Wein, 2011. Foreword. Earthquake Spectra 27 (2), 235-237. http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Porter-2011-ShakeOut-Foreword.pdf

Porter, K., L. Jones, D. Cox, J. Goltz, K. Hudnut, D. Mileti, S. Perry, D. Ponti, M. Reichle, A.Z. Rose, C.R. Scawthorn, H.A. Seligson, K.I. Shoaf, J. Treiman, and A. Wein, 2011. The ShakeOut Scenario: a hypothetical Mw7.8 earthquake on the southern San Andreas Fault. Earthquake Spectra 27 (2), 239-261, http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Porter-2011-ShakeOut-Overview.pdf.

Porter, K.A., and R. Sherrill, 2011. Utility performance panels in the ShakeOut Scenario. Earthquake Spectra 27 (2), 443-458, http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Porter-2011-ShakeOut-Panels.pdf

Porter, K.A., 2008. The Shake Out Scenario, A Hypothetical M7.8 Southern San Andreas Fault Earthquake. Structure Magazine, Dec 2008, 16-19. http://www.structuremag.org/article.aspx?articleID=812

Jones, L.M., R. Bernknopf, D. Cox, J. Goltz, K. Hudnut, D. Mileti, S. Perry, D. Ponti, K. Porter, M. Reichle, H. Seligson, K. Shoaf, J. Treiman, and A. Wein, 2008. The ShakeOut Scenario. U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2008-1150 and California Geological Survey Preliminary Report 25, http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2008/1150/

USGS. (2003). "The Plan to Coordinate Nehrp Post-Earthquake Investigations,." USGS Circular 1242, Thomas L. Holzer (Chair), Roger D. Borcherdt, Craig D. Comartin, Robert D. Hanson, Charles R. Scawthorn, Kathleen Tierney, T. Leslie Youd,, ed., prepared in coordination with the Federal Emergency Management Agency, National Science Foundation, and National Institute of Standards and Technology, USGS Western Region, Menlo Park CA.  http://pubs.usgs.gov/circ/1242/

Holzer, T. L., Scawthorn, C., and Rojahn, C. (2005). "Coordinating Nehrp Post-Earthquake Investigations - Exercising the Plan." Earthquake Spectra, 21(4), 1043-1062.  Earthquake Spectra 2005

Scawthorn, C., 2004. Development and Facilitation of Tabletop Exercises in Support of the Plan to Coordinate Nehrp Post-Earthquake Investigations, Final Report. C. Scawthorn Assoc., prepared for the U.S. Geological Survey and the Applied Technology Council, Berkeley, 62 pp.  ATC-35 NEHRP Exercises Final Report

Hurricanes, atmospheric rivers, and wind hazard

Porter, K.A., 2008. 0.05-degree Gridded Wind Hazard of the United States. SPA Risk LLC, Denver CO, http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Porter-2008-US-wind-hazard.zip

Mosqueda, G. and K.A. Porter, 2006. Preliminary conclusions: assessing damage to engineered buildings in the wake of Hurricane Katrina. Structural Engineer, February 2006, 20-26. http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Mosqueda-2006-Katrina.pdf

Mosqueda, G., K.A. Porter, J. O’Connor, and P. McAnany, 2007. Damage to engineered buildings and bridges in the wake of Hurricane Katrina. Proc. SEI Structures Congress, May 16-19, 2007, Long Beach CA. http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Mosqueda-2007-SEI-Katrina.pdf

Larsen, T., K. Porter, M. Zadeh, C. Van Anne, and C. Scawthorn, 1999. Impact of Hurricane Andrew on Performance, Interaction, and Recovery of Lifelines. Prepared for National Science Foundation. EQE International, Oakland CA. http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Larsen-1996-Andrew-Lifelines.pdf

Casualty loss estimation

Porter, K.A., K. Shoaf, and H. Seligson, 2006. Value of injuries in the Northridge Earthquake. Earthquake Spectra, 22 (2), May 2006. http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Porter-2006-VOI.pdf

Acceptable risk

 

Davis, M. and K. Porter, 2016. The public's role in seismic design provisions. Earthquake Spectra, preprint, doi:10.1193/081715EQS127M, http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Davis-Porter-2016-EQS-Ethics.pdf

Porter, K. and M. Davis, 2015. Not safe enough: the public's expectations of seismic performance. Journal of the National Institute of Building Sciences, 3 (5) 22-25. http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Porter-Davis-2015-JNIBS-Not-safe-enough.pdf

Porter, K.A., 2014. Safe enough? How buildings codes protect our lives but not our cities. Proceedings of the 10th National Conference on Earthquake Engineering, 21-25 July 2014, Anchorage AK, http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Porter-2014-10NCEE-safe-enough.pdf

Porter, K.A., 2013. Safe enough? How buildings codes protect our lives but not our cities. Phi Beta Kappa Northern California Association 26th Asilomar Conference, February 15-18, 2012, and University of Colorado Boulder SESM Seminar 1 Mar 2013, http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Porter-2013-CU-Safe-Enough.pdf

Porter, K.A., C. Scawthorn, C. Taylor, N. Blais, 1998. Appropriate Seismic Reliability for Critical Equipment Systems: Recommendations Based on Regional Analysis of Financial and Life Loss. MCEER-98-0016, Multidisciplinary Center for Earthquake Engineering Research, State University of New York, Buffalo, NY, 104 pp. http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Porter-1998-ACR.pdf

Real-time loss estimation

   

Wald, D., K.W. Lin, K. Porter, and L. Turner, 2008. ShakeCast: automating and improving the use of ShakeMap for post-earthquake decision-making and response. Earthquake Spectra, 24 (2), 533-553, http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Wald-2008-ShakeCast.pdf

Porter, K.A., J.L. Beck, J.Y. Ching, and J. Mitrani-Reiser, 2004. Real-Time Loss Estimation for Instrumented Buildings. Report EERL 2004-08, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA. http://caltecheerl.library.caltech.edu/374

Porter, K.A., J. Mitrani-Reiser, J.L. Beck, and J.Y, Ching, 2006. Smarter structures: real-time loss estimation for instrumented buildings, paper NCEE-1236. Proc., 8th National Conference on Earthquake Engineering, April 18-22, 2006, San Francisco, CA. http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Porter-2006-RTLE-8NCEE-poster.pdf.

Other topics

Porter, K. (2016). Can one divide uncertainty into two kinds? Risk Basics 1, SPA Risk LLC, Denver CO, p. 1-4, http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Porter-2016-Two-Kinds-of-Uncertainty.pdf

Lloyds Market Academy. (2011). "California Earthquake Risk, Report from the Lma Lloyd’s Market Academy Earthquake Seminar in San Francisco." Lloyd's Market Association, available here or at http://www.lmalloyds.com, London, 44 pp.

Porter, K.A., 2013. A Field Sampling Strategy for Estimating a Building Inventory. Global Earthquake Model, 30 pp. http://www.nexus.globalquakemodel.org/gem-idct/posts/idct-sampling-strategy-protocol/ or http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Porter-2013-GEMIDCT-Sampling-Strategy.pdf

Porter, K.A., E.H. Field, and K. Milner, 2012. Trimming the UCERF2 hazard logic tree. Seismological Research Letters, 83 (5), 815-828, http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Porter-2012-SRL-Tree-trim.pdf

Olsen, A.H. and K.A. Porter, 2011. On the Contribution of Reconstruction Labor Wages and Material Prices to Demand Surge. SESM-11-1, Department of Civil Environmental and Architectural Engineering, University of Colorado at Boulder, http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Olsen-2011-SESM-Demand-Surge.pdf

Olsen, A.H. and K.A. Porter, 2011. What we know about demand surge: a brief summary. Natural Hazards Review 12 (2), 62-71, http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Olsen-2011-NHR-WWKADS.pdf

Olsen, A.H. and K.A. Porter, 2010. What We Know about Demand Surge. Department of Civil Environmental and Architectural Engineering, University of Colorado Boulder, SESM-10-1, http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Olsen-2010-CU-WWKADS.pdf

Jaiswal, K., D. Wald, and K. Porter, 2010. A global building inventory for earthquake loss estimation and risk management. Earthquake Spectra 26 (3) 731-748, http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Jaiswal-2010-PAGER-inventory.pdf

Porter, K.A. and L. Jones, 2010. Ten tips for talking to townies: observations on risk communication from the Multihazards Demonstration Project. American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting, December 13-17, 2010, San Francisco, http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Porter-2010-AGU-10-tips.pdf

SPA Risk LLC, 2009. Data Interchange Formats for the Global Earthquake Model (GEM). Denver CO, http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/SPA-2009-GEM1-DIFs.pdf

Porter, K.A., and C.R. Scawthorn, 2009. Development of Open Source Seismic Risk Modeling Framework. Report to the US Geological Survey under award no 07HQAG0002, SPA Risk LLC, Denver CO, http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/SPA-2009-OpenRisk.pdf

Porter, K.A., and C.R. Scawthorn, 2007. OpenRisk: Open-Source Risk Estimation Software, SPA Risk, Pasadena, CA, 112 pp., http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/SPA-2007-OpenRisk.pdf

Porter, K.A., 1990. Design of Single-Plate Shear Connectors with Short Slotted Holes. Master's thesis, University of California Berkeley, 113 pp. http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Porter-1990-Shear-tabs-short-slotted-holes.pdf

Field data collection and learning from earthquakes

SPA Risk LLC, 2014. 24 August 2014 South Napa Mw 6 Earthquake Reconnaissance Report. 62 pp. http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/SPA-2014-Napa-Report.pdf

Scawthorn, C. and K.A. Porter, 2011. Reconnaissance Report. Aspects of the 11 March 2011 Eastern Japan Earthquake and Tsunami. SPA Risk LLC, 71 pp., http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/SPA-2011-Tohoku-Report.pdf

Scawthorn, C., J. Kiyono and H. Sakai (2011) Initial Survey, 11 March 2011 Tohoku Earthquake and Tsunami, 9 pgs.

Porter, K.A., B. Bell, and N. Pereira, 2011. Free, fast building seismic safety inspection software for smartphones. Building Safety Journal Online, Dec 2011, 56-62. http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Porter-2011-BSJ-ROVER.pdf

Porter, K.A., 2010. Rapid Observation of Vulnerability and Estimation of Risk (ROVER): end-to-end seismic risk management software. Proc 9th US National/10th Canadian Conference on Earthquake Engineering, 25-29 Jul 2010, Toronto Canada, MS 1781, http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Porter-2010-9USN10CCEE-ROVER.pdf

SPA Risk LLC, 2010. ROVER: Rapid Observation of Vulnerability and Estimation of Risk. Denver, CO. http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/ATC67-2010-ROVER-flyer.pdf

Porter, K.A., 2003. Learning from earthquakes: a survey of surveys. Keynote paper, EERI Invitational Workshop: An Action Plan to Develop Earthquake Damage and Loss Data Protocols, September 19th and 20th, 2002, Doubletree Hotel, Pasadena, California. Earthquake Engineering Research Institute, Oakland, CA, http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Porter-2003-Survey-of-Surveys.pdf and http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Porter-2003-Survey-of-Surveys-Appendix.pdf

Video Presentations

March 2, 2011  Open-source risk vs. Proprietary risk models, a talk presented by Charles Scawthorn as part of a Distance Learning Seminar Series on Disaster Risk Management in East Asia and the Pacific, sponsored by the World Bank.  Dr. Scawthorn spoke in favor of Open Source Risk Models to an audience at many places around the world, including  Indonesia (Jakarta), Lao PDR (Vientiane), Thailand (Bangkok), Vietnam (Hanoi), Cambodia (Phnom Penh), China (Beijing), Mongolia (Ulaanbaatar), Philippines (Manila), Singapore (Singapore), Japan (Tokyo) and Fiji (Suva).  View the 33 minute presentation here.

October 2010: ARkStorm, the Other Big One, a talk presented by Keith Porter to the Engineers' Forum, a seminar series sponsored by the East Bay Municipal Utilities District. Dr Porter gave an overview of an emergency planning scenario describing a hypothetical but realistic severe winter storm in California, and its impacts on the state's infrastructure, population, and economy. View the 50-minute presentation here

Academic Lectures

October 2015: "Earthquakes in Your Backyard": Guest lecture by Charles Scawthorn in UC Berkeley course EPS 20 in the Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Univ. of California at Berkeley, available here

 

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