NOVEMBER 2010
SPA led an analysis of the potential losses due to fire following earthquake in the City of San Francisco, for the City’s CAPSS (Community Action Plan for Seismic Safety) project. A stochastic model for analyzing fire following earthquake for San Francisco was developed to assess fire following earthquake impacts due to four earthquake scenarios: magnitude 7.9, 7.2 and 6.5 events on the San Andreas fault near San Francisco, and a magnitude 6.9 event on the Hayward fault. Depending on the specific earthquake scenario, over 1,000 breaks in the potable water system may occur and losses that for example for the Mw 7.9 event (essentially a repeat of the 1906 earthquake) are on average about $7.6 billion, and half the time will be as much as $10.3 billion. Opportunities were identified for reducing the fire following earthquake risk, including further improvements in reliability of post-earthquake water supply, further support for NERT, and greater training for this problem for SFFD officers and firefighters. Copies of the report are available (contact cscawthorn@sparisk.com) and will soon be published by the City and the Applied Technology Council.